GPU lease vs. loan

A loan costs least to own. An FMV lease needs the least cash, and you can hand the servers back.

The same $20M cluster, four ways

256 GPUs on a 36-month take-or-pay at $3.70 per GPU-hour. The loans need half the cost in cash. The leases need about a fifth, and cost more to own.

24-month loan36-month loan24-month FMV lease36-month FMV lease
Down payment50%50%20%20%
Rate14%15%17%18%
Cash at closing$10M$10M$4.43M$4.42M
Monthly payment$480K$347K$432K$424K
Coverage (DSCR)1.19x1.64x1.32x1.34x
FMV buyout at the endNoneNone$10M (50%)$7M (35%)
Cost if you return itn/an/a$14.37M$19.26M
Cost to own$21.52M$22.48M$24.37M$26.26M

The default case in the loan vs lease workbook below: $122K a month of operating cost, lease payments one month in advance.

GPU Modeling + Loan vs Lease

Editable spreadsheet comparing a loan against an FMV lease: payments, total cost to own, and coverage.

Free XLSX

Coverage decides more than cost

The cheapest to own is not always the one a lender will write. The 24-month loan costs least to own at $21.52M, but its $480K payment leaves 1.19x coverage, under the 1.25x many lenders ask for. The 36-month loan clears it at 1.64x. The leases sit at 1.32x and 1.34x, with $4.42M at closing instead of $10M.

At the end of an FMV lease

Return
Hand the servers back. You owe nothing more.
Extend
Usually 12 months, at roughly 30-40% of the original monthly payment, subject to your financials then.
Buy
At fair market value, from the wholesale market. The lessor usually sets it; sometimes a third party appraises it. A buyout cap is negotiable but high, around 50%.
Refinance
Take a loan equal to the FMV, buy the servers, and repay it over about 12 months.

Valuing the servers at lease end: GPU appraisals.

Which one fits

Cash on hand
Enough for 30-50% down? Take the loan. If you can’t reach 50%, an FMV lease may be the only option.
The servers at term end
On a 5-year contract you may not want 5-year-old GPUs. Plan to return them: lease.
Monthly payment too tight
Lease, or a loan with a balloon at maturity.

Run your own loan and lease. FMV, $1 buyout and sale-leaseback structures: GPU leasing.

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